Lithuania’s Economy Maintains Growth, Real Estate Market Moves Towards Balance
Lithuania’s Economy Maintains Growth, Real Estate Market Moves Towards Balance
INREAL Group, together with its partners SEB, COBALT and CityNow, presents the latest Lithuanian Economic and Real Estate Market Report, covering the key economic, real estate, legal and development trends in Lithuania in the first half of 2026.
The latest data show that Lithuania’s economy remains one of the fastest-growing in the European Union, with GDP expanding by 3.3% in the first half of the year, while wages continued to rise faster than inflation. Meanwhile, after a strong recovery, the housing market is entering a more balanced phase. In Vilnius, new supply exceeded sales for the first time in several years. Office and warehouse markets continue to show stable occupancy levels, while the investment environment is increasingly shaped by regulatory changes and a growing pipeline of new development projects.
Lithuanian Economic and Real Estate Market Report 2026 H1 (PDF)
Economy
“Lithuania’s economy maintained strong growth in the first half of 2026, driven not only by higher household consumption following withdrawals from second-pillar pension funds, but also by stronger performance in the manufacturing, construction, transport and IT sectors. Two new unicorns emerged in Lithuania in just six months.
“So far, the surge in energy and related commodity prices has not had a significant negative impact on economic growth. However, it remains one of the key risk factors as we approach the end of the year. Although inflation has risen more than expected this year, it remains below the growth rate of average wages.
“EURIBOR rates are rising again this year, which is likely to moderate household consumption and housing market activity in the second half of the year,” says Tadas Povilauskas, Economist at SEB Bank.
Real Estate Market
According to Tomas Sovijus Kvainickas, Head of Investment and Analysis at INREAL Group, the first half of 2026 showed that Lithuania’s real estate market is moving towards a more balanced phase of development.
“Following an exceptionally active start to the year, the residential market saw supply grow faster than demand. In Vilnius alone, 3,336 homes were sold or reserved during the first half of the year, while 4,570 new homes were added to the market. In Kaunas, the supply of new development projects more than doubled, while Klaipėda’s housing market recorded one of its fastest growth rates in recent years.
“Commercial real estate markets remain stable. New business centres are steadily filling up, while office vacancy remains at a healthy level. In the warehouse market, vacancy has stabilised at around 6%, despite a steady increase in supply.
“This indicates that the market is entering a more mature phase, where project quality, location and the ability to respond to changing buyer and tenant needs are becoming key competitive advantages,” says Tomas Sovijus Kvainickas, Head of Investment and Analysis at INREAL Group.
Real Estate Law
The review also places significant emphasis on current developments in real estate law. According to Artūras Kojala, Partner at COBALT Lithuania and Head of the Real Estate and Infrastructure Practice Group, the regulatory environment is becoming an increasingly important factor in investment decisions.
“Regulatory factors are playing an increasingly important role in the real estate market alongside economic considerations. This year, we have focused extensively on changes and planned reforms in construction, land and infrastructure regulation, which could have a significant long-term impact on investment planning and project implementation.
“For market participants, it is important to assess not only the requirements currently in force, but also the changes that will shape the real estate development environment in the coming years,” says Artūras Kojala, Partner at COBALT Lithuania in the Real Estate and Infrastructure Department.
Real Estate Projects
As in previous editions, the review includes an overview of the latest real estate projects, providing insight into market development trends and the scale of new supply in Lithuania’s major cities.
“The beginning of 2026 in Lithuania’s real estate market has been marked by a significant increase in housing supply. In Vilnius, supply has risen by 45% since February, when it had fallen to a low of around 4,000 units. The market has been supplemented by a number of new, high-quality projects, a significant share of which are in the premium segment in Vilnius and Kaunas. This reflects the growing purchasing power of residents,” says Vilius Visockas, Product Developer and CEO of CityNow.
According to him, alongside strong activity in the major cities, another trend is emerging – growing interest in opportunities in smaller cities. A community of small-scale investors and home renovators that has strengthened over the past several years is becoming increasingly visible, while the number of small and medium-sized real estate conversion projects is also growing.
The Lithuanian Economic and Real Estate Market Report is published twice a year. It is prepared by INREAL Group analysts together with SEB economists, COBALT real estate law experts and CityNow analysts. The review covers the Lithuanian economy, residential and commercial real estate markets, the legal environment and the most significant development projects currently underway. It is intended for investors, business representatives and anyone interested in the development of Lithuania’s economy and real estate market.
About the Companies
INREAL Group, established in 1994, develops real estate projects and provides one of the broadest ranges of real estate services in Lithuania. Our integrated structure allows us to provide end-to-end services across the real estate lifecycle – from market analysis and project concept development to development project management, asset and property management, valuation, brokerage, leasing, and surveying and cadastral services. With 11 offices and branches across Lithuania, we serve clients nationwide.
SEB is a leading Nordic financial services group. We believe that entrepreneurial minds and innovative companies are key to creating a better world. We are here to help them achieve their aspirations and succeed through good times and bad. In Sweden and the Baltic countries, SEB offers financial advice and a wide range of financial services. In Denmark, Finland, Norway and Germany, SEB Group’s banks have a strong focus on corporate and investment banking services for corporate and institutional clients. SEB has a presence in 20 countries worldwide and employs around 15,000 people across the Group.
COBALT is one of the largest and leading legal services groups in the Baltic States, with offices in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Our Estonian office was established in 1990, followed by Latvia in 1994 and Lithuania in 2001. COBALT has been recognised as Baltic Law Firm of the Year ten times and has received prestigious awards from Chambers Europe, IFLR, The Lawyer and Mergermarket. We consistently rank among the top firms in the M&A league tables published by Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Mergermarket.
CityNow is a company developing data- and AI-powered real estate analytics tools for professionals. Its key products include a real estate development map featuring data on more than 6,500 new-build projects across the Baltic States collected since 2018, along with more than 40,000 construction photos documenting project progress; valuations.lt, an automated valuation tool for property valuers and financial institutions; and relo.lt, a virtual assistant for real estate brokers and property sellers.
More information:
Rūta Merčaitienė
Head of Marketing and Communication, INREAL Group
+370 611 29779
ruta.mercaitiene@inreal.lt
