March 9, 2016. According to “Inreal” analysts, when assessing the statistics of housing transactions and the number of employees in Lithuania, one can observe a strong direct link between these two rates. It is realistic to expect for the increase in the employment rate in 2016, what should result in the increase in the number of housing purchase-sale transactions. More active RE market enables prices to grow, therefore if the latter trends persist, the overall level of housing prices in Lithuania should be increasing in 2016: by 5-6 percent in the apartment segment, and as a result of active increase in supply in the private house segment, the prices should remain stable.
The apartment purchase-sale transactions have been growing for five years in a row and stopped in 2015, while the overall decrease in purchase-sale transactions by 8 percent was registered in the entire Lithuania. It is difficult to expect for further growth in the market with the rates reaching the previous apartment purchase-sale transactions, however, according to “Inreal” analysts, it is not an argument to be used for objective substantiation of future forecasts.
“We estimate that 100 new jobs in Lithuania increase the number of purchase-sale transactions by 10-12 apartments and by 3-4 private houses”, – stated Arnoldas Antanavičius, the Head of Investment and Analysis Department of “Inreal”.
In 2015, the number of people employed in Vilnius has decreased by about 6,000 and is already exceeding the pre-crisis level by 1 percent. The ongoing development of companies, both local and foreign, and the creation of new jobs in the capital city allow forecasting an increase in jobs by 2,000-3,000 at least in 2016. 100 new jobs in Vilnius city increase the number of transactions by 20-25 apartments and by 3-4 private houses, at an average. It allows forecasting that in 2016 the number of purchase-sale transactions should grow in Vilnius: apartments by 5-7 percent at least and private houses by 10-12 percent. Increasing demand in the active market of the capital city will be putting pressure on prices, therefore it is realistic to expect for the increase in apartment prices by 8-10 percent in 2016. As a result of extensive supply of private houses, the prices in this segment will likely remain stable or increase insignificantly.
The statistics of employed residents in Kaunas city is not favourable, thus in 2016 the activity of the market will be lower than in 2015. “Inreal” estimates that 100 new jobs in Kaunas increase the number of transactions by 30-35 apartments and by 3-4 private houses, at an average. A similar change should be registered in the event of decreasing number of employments. Nevertheless, there are many perspectives for the statistics of employment to improve in Kaunas, because more and more foreign companies are considering their development in Kaunas rather than Vilnius, where labour and operating costs are higher. This trend would essentially improve the situation and prospects in Kaunas housing market.
A rather strong interdependence between housing purchase-sale transactions and the number of the employed people is observed in Klaipeda. Unfortunately, the number of employed residents was decreasing in Klaipeda in 2015. Respectively, less activity in the housing market was observed. On the other hand, the number of employed residents is reaching the pre-crisis level; meanwhile the activity of housing market is less by approx. 30 percent than in 2007. Therefore, one can assume that Klaipeda city has not exhausted its full potential yet and the activity of the market should start growing. “Inreal” estimates that 100 new jobs in Klaipeda increase the number of transactions by 25-30 apartments and by 1-2 private houses, at an average. It can be forecasted that in 2016 the housing market in Klaipeda city should be more active: by approx. 10 percent in the apartment segment, while the private house segment will likely remain stable.
Inreal Group, that consist of JSC “Inreal valdymas”, JSC “Inreal” and JSC “Inreal GEO”, provides probably the widest spectrum of services in Lithuania, related to real estate. Inreal group companies belong to SC “Invalda privatus kapitalas”. About 90 employees are currently working in Inreal group; mediations in lease or sale of more than 550 thousand sq.m of commercial premises, over 550 residential housing objects, and over 300 land plots. The company mediates in 50 residential housing projects, 24 investment projects, or their portfolios. More than 4,900 valuation reports and about 80 consultations (feasibility studies, investment memorandums, and market research) are being drawn up annually. The value of asset of valuation is above 725 million euros. Company offices or representations are operating in Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipėda, Šiauliai, Panevėžys, Mažeikiai, Alytus, Plungė, Taurage, Utena and Druskininkai. During 20 years of its activity “Inreal valdymas” has developed over 50 different well recognized real estate projects that have won awards not only in Lithuania, but also at international contests.